* as predicted by my cat Caligula.
In more detail, Caligula is predicting that it will look like Clinton is winning as the first results come in, but eventually it will be a Trump victory.
Kevin Simler writes about crony beliefs:
the human brain has to strike an awkward balance between two different reward systems:
- Meritocracy, where we monitor beliefs for accuracy out of fear that we’ll stumble by acting on a false belief; and
- Cronyism, where we don’t care about accuracy so much as whether our beliefs make the right impressions on others.
And so we can roughly (with caveats we’ll discuss in a moment) divide our beliefs into merit beliefs and crony beliefs. Both contribute to our bottom line — survival and reproduction — but they do so in different ways: merit beliefs by helping us navigate the world, crony beliefs by helping us look good.
People generally don’t think they are biased, and the less biased someone thinks they are the more biased they probably are.
(via AI Safety)