Three new opinion polls

I. Results

We have 3 new opinion polls, with data collection ending on the 9th or 10th of May:

Date  Org     UKIP  Lab  Con   LD  Grn Brex ChUK
====  ======  ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ====
  10  Opin       4   21   11   12    8   34    3           
   9  ComRes     3   25   13   14    8   27    6          
   9  YouGov     3   16   10   15   11   34    5 

      AVERAGE  3.3 20.7 11.3 13.7    9 31.7  4.7

Comparing these results to the last 2, we have:

Party    Old    New  Change
=====  =====  =====  ======
Brex    28.5   31.7   +3.2
Lab     26     20.7   -5.3
LD      11.5   13.7   +2.2
Con     14     11.3   -2.7
Grn      6      9     +3.0
ChUK     5      4.7   -0.3
UKIP     3      3.3   +0.3

II. Conclusions

So the Brexit Party, Lib Dems and Greens are all up, while Labour and the Conservatives are both down. This is a continuance of the trend where parties with a firm position on Brexit (either for or against) are doing well, while the two big Westminster parties are doing badly: they aren’t leave enough for the leavers and they aren’t remain enough for the remainers.

The Lib Dems have pushed the Tories into 4th place. In one poll they’re in 5th place, behind even the Greens! If these declines continue, we could end up with the Tories below 10% and Labour below 15%, meaning that the 2 main parties who have nearly all MPs between them are supported by less than 1 in 4 of the voters. This would catastrophically bad for them,.

Finally, both UKIP and Change UK have failed to excite: leavers prefer the Brexit Party and remainers prefer the Lib Dems and Greens.

Many remainers wanted all the remain parties to fight the election under one united banner. That didn’t happen, but it looks like remain voters have collectively decided to use the Liberal Democrats as their vehicle for registering an anti-Brexit vote.

III. Recommendations

If you’re a remain voter in England, want to cast a vote against Brexit, and don’t feel strong allegiance to any particular party, the Vote Remain recommendation is that you vote for the Liberal Democrats as the best way to stop Brexit.

This is a provisional recommendation, subject to change in the light of further information.

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