Graph of European election opinion polls

Here’s a graph of opinion polls for the European election. (It uses the list of polls on Wikipedia).


There’s a a lot of variance in these polls, but some trends are clear:

  • The Brexit party is doing will and barring accidents will come in 1st.
  • Labour’s support has fallen over the campaigning period and the may come 3rd after the Lib Dems. The Tories have also fallen and may come 5th after the Greens.
  • The Lib Dems have had a good election. They will probably get around 16% of the vote.
  • Both UKIP and Change UK have done poorly, with their vote squeezed by (respectively) the Brexit Party and the Lib Dems.
  • The Greens are polling around 9% and will probably do better than the 7% they got in 2014.

Of the remain parties, the order is: Lib Dems (16%), Greens (9%), Change UK (4%), so if you’re a remain vote and have on strong preference over who to vote for, choose the Lib Dems.

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