UK General Election Prediction: Con maj 40 seats

This UK general election is harder to predict than most. Polls vary between a Labour lead or 1 point and a Tory lead of 13 points. (1) polling organisations don’t know how bit the “shy Tory” effect will be and therefore don’t know how much to compensate for it, and (2) nor it is known what the turnout of younger voters will be — there have been reports of a million people registering to vote in recent weeks.

Taking an average Tory lead of 6 points, and then adjusting for:

  1. the Lib Dems keep all their seats and gain one from the Tories
  2. In Scotland, the Tories gain 4 seats from the SNP and Labour gain 1
  3. UK lose their seat
  4. The Greens keep theirs

We have:

Con         345
Lab         225
SNP          50
Lib Dem       9
Plaid Cymru   2
Green         1
NI Parties   18

Note that we count the speaker, John Bercow, as a Conservative. This gives the Tories an overall majority of 40 seats.




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