West Midlands seats

Some West Midlands seats…

New results

Worcestershire West (Midlands) – Con hold
Party 2005 votes 2005 %age 2010 votes 2010 %age swing
Con 23661 46.64 27213 50.35 +3.71
LD 18944 37.34 20409 37.76 +0.42
Lab 5226 10.30 3661 6.77 -3.53
UKIP 0 0.00 2119 3.92
Green 0 0.00 641 1.19
Others 2900 5.72 0 0.00
Worcestershire Mid (Midlands) – Con hold
Party 2005 votes 2005 %age 2010 votes 2010 %age swing
Con 24215 51.22 27770 54.52 +3.30
LD 9664 20.44 11906 23.38 +2.93
Lab 11306 23.92 7613 14.95 -8.97
UKIP 0 0.00 3049 5.99
Green 0 0.00 593 1.16
Others 2090 4.42 0 0.00
Wrekin, The (Midlands) – Con hold
Party 2005 votes 2005 %age 2010 votes 2010 %age swing
Con 17470 41.51 21922 47.69 +6.18
Lab 16736 39.76 12472 27.13 -12.63
LD 6387 15.17 8019 17.44 +2.27
UKIP 0 0.00 2050 4.46
BNP 0 0.00 1505 3.27
Others 1497 3.56 0 0.00
Telford (Midlands) – Lab hold
Party 2005 votes 2005 %age 2010 votes 2010 %age swing
Lab 17729 47.70 15977 38.67 -9.02
Con 12528 33.70 14996 36.30 +2.59
LD 5161 13.88 6399 15.49 +1.60
UKIP 0 0.00 2428 5.88
BNP 0 0.00 1513 3.66
Others 1753 4.72 0 0.00
Stafford (Midlands) – Con GAIN from Lab
Party 2005 votes 2005 %age 2010 votes 2010 %age swing
Con 18359 39.59 22047 43.88 +4.29
Lab 20175 43.51 16587 33.02 -10.49
LD 6302 13.59 8211 16.34 +2.75
UKIP 0 0.00 1727 3.44
BNP 0 0.00 1103 2.20
Green 0 0.00 564 1.12
Others 1532 3.30 0 0.00
Staffordshire South (Midlands) – Con hold
Party 2005 votes 2005 %age 2010 votes 2010 %age swing
Con 13798 50.66 26834 53.20 +2.54
Lab 5642 20.71 10244 20.31 -0.40
LD 3541 13.00 8427 16.71 +3.71
UKIP 0 0.00 2753 5.46
BNP 0 0.00 1928 3.82
Ind 0 0.00 254 0.50
Minor 2674 9.82 0 0.00
Others 1583 5.81 0 0.00
Birmingham Ladywood (Midlands) – Lab hold
Party 2005 votes 2005 %age 2010 votes 2010 %age swing
Lab 16010 51.01 19950 55.67 +4.66
LD 9572 30.50 9845 27.47 -3.02
Con 2822 8.99 4277 11.94 +2.94
UKIP 0 0.00 902 2.52
Green 0 0.00 859 2.40
Others 1791 5.71 0 0.00
Minor 1191 3.79 0 0.00
Sutton Coldfield (Midlands) – Con hold
Party 2005 votes 2005 %age 2010 votes 2010 %age swing
Con 24271 52.58 27303 53.97 +1.39
Lab 11952 25.89 10298 20.36 -5.54
LD 7682 16.64 9117 18.02 +1.38
BNP 0 0.00 1749 3.46
UKIP 0 0.00 1587 3.14
Green 0 0.00 535 1.06
Others 2255 4.89 0 0.00
Tamworth (Midlands) – Con GAIN from Lab
Party 2005 votes 2005 %age 2010 votes 2010 %age swing
Con 16231 37.11 21238 45.78 +8.67
Lab 18802 42.99 15148 32.65 -10.33
LD 6176 14.12 7516 16.20 +2.08
UKIP 0 0.00 2253 4.86
Christian 0 0.00 235 0.51
Others 2531 5.79 0 0.00
Nuneaton (Midlands) – Con GAIN from Lab
Party 2005 votes 2005 %age 2010 votes 2010 %age swing
Con 14620 35.30 18536 41.52 +6.22
Lab 19661 47.47 16467 36.88 -10.58
LD 4905 11.84 6846 15.33 +3.49
BNP 0 0.00 2797 6.26
Others 2234 5.39 0 0.00

Swings based on known results

Swing for Lab/Con seats – 15 samples
Con +5.25; LD +0.99; Lab -8.57;
Swing for Lab/LD seats – 3 samples
Con +1.68; LD -3.59; Lab +4.56; SNP +2.45;
Swing for Con/Lab seats – 15 samples
Con +3.69; LD +3.21; Lab -8.46;
Swing for Con/LD seats – 4 samples
Con +6.16; LD -4.41; Lab -3.56;
Swing for LD/Con seats – 4 samples
Con +5.33; LD -2.37; Lab -3.03; SNP +3.79;
Swing for seats where SNP came 1st or 2nd – 3 samples
Con +0.68; LD -4.20; Lab +4.29; SNP +2.22;
Swing for seats where PC came 1st or 2nd – 1 sample
Con +1.88; LD +1.63; Lab -5.23; PC +1.34;
Regional swing for South East – 5 samples
Con +6.31; LD -2.27; Lab -5.50;
Regional swing for Midlands – 20 samples
Con +3.58; LD +2.31; Lab -7.44;
Regional swing for North England – 4 samples
Con +5.80; LD +1.44; Lab -10.73;
Regional swing for East Anglia – 2 samples
Con +4.74; LD +2.15; Lab -9.26;
Regional swing for West England – 3 samples
Con +5.61; LD -1.85; Lab -7.02;
Regional swing for London – 3 samples
Con +8.40; LD -1.31; Lab -4.97;
Regional swing for South West – 1 sample
Con +2.84; LD +5.09; Lab -7.88;
Regional swing for Wales – 1 sample
Con +1.88; LD +1.63; Lab -5.23; PC +1.34;
Regional swing for Scotland – 6 samples
Con +1.07; LD -4.69; Lab +4.38; SNP +2.56;
Composite swing for all seats – 45 samples
Con +4.20; LD +0.31; Lab -5.79; PC +1.34; SNP +2.56;

Predicted result

Party Votes %age Seats
Con 38.12 314
Lab 30.90 252
LD 22.69 53
NI parties 0.00 18
SNP 1.73 6
PC 0.73 4
Minor 0.83 3

.

This entry was posted in Britain, politics, Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s