Some Tory holds…

Some Tory holds…

New results

Filton and Bradley Stoke (West England) – Con hold
Party 2005 votes 2005 %age 2010 votes 2010 %age swing
Con 15566 36.06 19686 40.76 +4.69
Lab 14104 32.68 12772 26.44 -6.23
LD 11457 26.54 12197 25.25 -1.29
UKIP 0 0.00 1506 3.12
BNP 0 0.00 1328 2.75
Green 0 0.00 441 0.91
Christian 0 0.00 199 0.41
Ind 0 0.00 172 0.36
Others 2035 4.71 0 0.00
Broxbourne (East Anglia) – Con hold
Party 2005 votes 2005 %age 2010 votes 2010 %age swing
Con 21878 53.85 26844 58.79 +4.94
Lab 10369 25.52 8040 17.61 -7.91
LD 4970 12.23 6107 13.38 +1.14
BNP 0 0.00 2159 4.73
UKIP 0 0.00 1890 4.14
EngDem 0 0.00 618 1.35
Others 3410 8.39 0 0.00

Swings based on known results

Swing for Lab/Con seats – 5 samples
Con +5.85; LD +0.85; Lab -10.81;
Swing for Con/Lab seats – 3 samples
Con +6.44; LD +0.13; Lab -8.10;
Swing for LD/Con seats – 2 samples
Con +4.46; LD +1.17; Lab -5.77;
Swing for seats where PC came 1st or 2nd – 1 sample
Con +1.88; LD +1.63; Lab -5.23; PC +1.34;
Regional swing for North England – 4 samples
Con +5.80; LD +1.44; Lab -10.73;
Regional swing for East Anglia – 1 sample
Con +4.94; LD +1.14; Lab -7.91;
Regional swing for West England – 3 samples
Con +5.61; LD -1.85; Lab -7.02;
Regional swing for London – 1 sample
Con +9.67; LD +0.55; Lab -10.14;
Regional swing for South West – 1 sample
Con +2.84; LD +5.09; Lab -7.88;
Regional swing for Wales – 1 sample
Con +1.88; LD +1.63; Lab -5.23; PC +1.34;
Composite swing for all seats – 11 samples
Con +5.40; LD +0.78; Lab -8.65; PC +1.34;

Predicted result

Party Votes %age Seats
Con 39.77 336
Lab 28.02 219
LD 24.00 65
NI parties 0.00 18
SNP 1.60 5
PC 0.74 4
Minor 0.88 3

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