More results

We have gains for Plaid Cymru and the Conservatives…

New results

Arfon (Wales) – PC GAIN from Lab
Party 2005 votes 2005 %age 2010 votes 2010 %age swing
PC 8968 34.64 9383 35.98 +1.34
Lab 9223 35.63 7928 30.40 -5.23
Con 3898 15.06 4416 16.93 +1.88
LD 3216 12.42 3666 14.06 +1.63
UKIP 0 0.00 685 2.63
Others 581 2.24 0 0.00
Kingswood (West England) – Con GAIN from Lab
Party 2005 votes 2005 %age 2010 votes 2010 %age swing
Con 15109 34.35 19362 40.42 +6.07
Lab 20442 46.47 16917 35.31 -11.16
LD 8078 18.36 8072 16.85 -1.51
UKIP 0 0.00 1528 3.19
BNP 0 0.00 1311 2.74
Green 0 0.00 383 0.80
EngDem 0 0.00 333 0.70
Others 362 0.82 0 0.00

Swings based on known results

Swing for Lab/Con seats – 4 samples
Con +5.97; LD -0.16; Lab -10.32;
Swing for LD/Con seats – 1 sample
Con +6.08; LD -2.75; Lab -3.66;
Swing for seats where PC came 1st or 2nd – 1 sample
Con +1.88; LD +1.63; Lab -5.23; PC +1.34;
Regional swing for North England – 3 samples
Con +5.94; LD +0.29; Lab -10.04;
Regional swing for West England – 2 samples
Con +6.07; LD -2.13; Lab -7.41;
Regional swing for Wales – 1 sample
Con +1.88; LD +1.63; Lab -5.23; PC +1.34;
Composite swing for all seats – 6 samples
Con +5.31; LD -0.29; Lab -8.36; PC +1.34;

Predicted result

Party Votes %age Seats
Con 40.04 340
Lab 28.67 222
LD 23.00 58
NI parties 0.00 18
SNP 1.61 5
PC 0.74 4
Minor 0.89 3

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