Four in Southern England

Here are four results in southern England. In three of these the Lib Dem vote share went down, which suggests to me that the exit poll got it mostly right, and the Lib Dems aren’t going to make any big gains at this election.

New results

Newbury (South East) – Con hold
Party 2005 votes 2005 %age 2010 votes 2010 %age swing
Con 26371 48.95 33057 56.42 +7.48
LD 22962 42.62 20809 35.52 -7.10
Lab 3205 5.95 2505 4.28 -1.67
UKIP 0 0.00 1475 2.52
Green 0 0.00 490 0.84
Ind 0 0.00 158 0.27
Apolitical 0 0.00 95 0.16
Others 1339 2.49 0 0.00
Guildford (South East) – Con GAIN from LD
Party 2005 votes 2005 %age 2010 votes 2010 %age swing
Con 21779 43.15 29618 53.30 +10.15
LD 21884 43.36 21836 39.30 -4.06
Lab 5070 10.05 2812 5.06 -4.99
UKIP 0 0.00 1021 1.84
Peace 0 0.00 280 0.50
Others 1737 3.44 0 0.00
Sevenoaks (South East) – Con hold
Party 2005 votes 2005 %age 2010 votes 2010 %age swing
Con 22926 51.21 28076 56.82 +5.61
LD 10387 23.20 10561 21.38 -1.83
Lab 9188 20.52 6541 13.24 -7.28
UKIP 0 0.00 1782 3.61
BNP 0 0.00 1384 2.80
EngDem 0 0.00 806 1.63
Ind 0 0.00 258 0.52
Others 2267 5.06 0 0.00
Bedfordshire South West (East Anglia) – Con hold
Party 2005 votes 2005 %age 2010 votes 2010 %age swing
Con 22114 48.27 26815 52.81 +4.55
LD 7725 16.86 10166 20.02 +3.16
Lab 13837 30.20 9948 19.59 -10.61
UKIP 0 0.00 2142 4.22
BNP 0 0.00 1703 3.35
Others 2140 4.67 0 0.00

Swings based on known results

Swing for Lab/Con seats – 7 samples
Con +6.40; LD -0.03; Lab -8.41;
Swing for Lab/LD seats – 1 sample
Con +1.29; LD -6.36; Lab +5.20; SNP +2.18;
Swing for Con/Lab seats – 4 samples
Con +5.96; LD +0.89; Lab -8.72;
Swing for Con/LD seats – 2 samples
Con +6.54; LD -4.46; Lab -4.48;
Swing for LD/Con seats – 4 samples
Con +5.33; LD -2.37; Lab -3.03; SNP +3.79;
Swing for seats where SNP came 1st or 2nd – 3 samples
Con +0.68; LD -4.20; Lab +4.29; SNP +2.22;
Swing for seats where PC came 1st or 2nd – 1 sample
Con +1.88; LD +1.63; Lab -5.23; PC +1.34;
Regional swing for South East – 3 samples
Con +7.75; LD -4.33; Lab -4.65;
Regional swing for North England – 4 samples
Con +5.80; LD +1.44; Lab -10.73;
Regional swing for East Anglia – 2 samples
Con +4.74; LD +2.15; Lab -9.26;
Regional swing for West England – 3 samples
Con +5.61; LD -1.85; Lab -7.02;
Regional swing for London – 3 samples
Con +8.40; LD -1.31; Lab -4.97;
Regional swing for South West – 1 sample
Con +2.84; LD +5.09; Lab -7.88;
Regional swing for Wales – 1 sample
Con +1.88; LD +1.63; Lab -5.23; PC +1.34;
Regional swing for Scotland – 5 samples
Con +1.12; LD -5.34; Lab +4.49; SNP +2.52;
Composite swing for all seats – 22 samples
Con +4.92; LD -1.47; Lab -4.64; PC +1.34; SNP +2.52;

Predicted result

Party Votes %age Seats
Con 38.95 321
Lab 31.31 245
LD 21.48 53
NI parties 0.00 18
SNP 1.74 6
PC 0.73 4
Minor 0.87 3

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