Election prediction

Here’s my final prediction of the election result, based on opinion polls.

Recent polls (from UK Polling Report) are:

Date Poller For Con Lab LD
Mon May 3 CR ITV/Independent 37 29 26
Mon May 3 YG Sun 35 28 28
Mon May 3 Opinium Express 33 28 27
Tue May 4 YG Sun 35 30 24
Wed May 5 Opinium Express 35 27 26
Wed May 5 TNS BMRB 33 27 29
Wed May 5 Populus 37 28 27
Wed May 5 Angus Reid Political Betting 36 24 29
Wed May 5 YG Sun 35 28 28
Wed May 5 Harris Mail 35 29 27
Averages 35.1 27.8 27.1

Plugging these averages into the BBC’s results calculator gives:

Conservative 279
Labour 262
Lib Dem 80
Others 29

Which would mean that there’s a hung parliament, with the Lib Dems able to form a majority with either of the other two parties. However, I think that:

  • the Tories will do better in Lab-Con marginals than the polls suggest (an extra 1% swing to them from Labour would give them an extra 18 seats)
  • Labour will win back Bethnal Green and Bow from Respect
  • the Lib Dems will do slightly better in their target seats than the polls predict (they often do, because they target their campaigns in these places), gaining 2 seats from each of Labour and the Tories.

Factoring in these changes, we get my final prediction:

Conservative 295
Labour 243
Lib Dem 84
Others 28

This is interesting because Labour and the Lib Dems together would get 327 seats, just two seats over the winning post of 325. If the Tories did slightly better, they’d probably be able to form a minority government; but on these figures either of the two biggest parties would depend on Lib Dem support (unless Labour and the Tories wanted to go into coalition with each other, of course).

To summarise, it’s too close to call. Labour will probably get more votes than the Lib Dems, but only just. And the Conservatives will probably not get enough seats to form a minority government, but again, only by a short margin.

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1 Response to Election prediction

  1. Pingback: BBC exit poll is bollocks « Amused Cynicism

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