European election prediction — I’m the winner

Last week I predicted the result of the European election. So did a number of other people,  such as Craig Murray, Michael at Dave’s Part, Iain Dale, and a number of people responding to Iain’s post.

I thought I’d have a look at the accuracy of these predictions. To calculate this I took the squares of the differences between the prediction and the actual percentage result for each party, and added them together. I then normalised these scores by dividing them by the number of parties being predicted (6) and taking the square root.

Anyway, the winners, in reverse order (normalised score in brackets, lower values are better):

3rd was AMW (1.81)

2nd was wee leither (1.59)

1st was me (1.54)

Incidently bottom was Fausty (5.54)

So I made the best prediction of the European election.

Full scores are in a spreadsheet which I’ll email to anyone who’s interested.

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