European election prediction

There’s an election today, so I thought I’d predict what share of the GB vote the parties will get.

Con   27.0
Lab   17.6
LD    16.0
UKIP  15.5
Green 10.5
BNP    5.8

Incidently if these voting shares happened in a general election, then assuming the UKIP, Green, and BNP support was too spread out to win them any seats, the result would be: Con 309 seats, Lab 233, LD 72, with the Tories the largest party but 17 seats short of a majority.

UPDATE: others have made predictions —

Iain Dale:

Conservative 30%
Labour 18%
LibDem 15%
UKIP 18%
BNP 4%
Green 8%
Others 7%

More predictions at Dave’s Part.

When I get the actual results in, I’ll calculateb the accuracy of each prediction — using the sum of the squares of the differences between the prediction oand the actual percentage — and declare a winner.

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