HW of Holyrood Chronicle notes that the SNP are still the favourites for the Glenrothes by-election:
According to politicalbetting.com, you can still get 2/5 on the SNP (which is rather more generous than the 1/4 at the start of the race). The best for Labour is at 9/4; if you’re a betting man, that would seem more attractive. 100/1 bar.
This is an implied probability of about 70% that the Scottish Nationalists will win, and 30% that Labour will win.
However, I think Labour will win. Firstly because Gordon Brown has come of of the financial crisis looking good. For example Nobel laureate Paul Krugman paints him as virtually the saviour of the Western world:
The eurozone governments have delivered, more or less adopting the British plan. And I should have given props to the British government, which vastly exceeded expectations last week — and has effectively shown the world the way forward.
And secondly because the bailout of the Scottish banks HBOS (£17 billion) and Royal Bank of Scotland (£20 billion) makes it look like Scotland is too small to go it alone and needs to remain part of the UK.