Labour will win the Glenrothes by-election

HW of Holyrood Chronicle notes that the SNP are still the favourites for the Glenrothes by-election:

According to politicalbetting.com, you can still get 2/5 on the SNP (which is rather more generous than the 1/4 at the start of the race). The best for Labour is at 9/4; if you’re a betting man, that would seem more attractive. 100/1 bar.

This is an implied probability of about 70% that the Scottish Nationalists will win, and 30% that Labour will win.

However, I think Labour will win. Firstly because Gordon Brown has come of of the financial crisis looking good. For example Nobel laureate Paul Krugman paints him as virtually the saviour of the Western world:

The eurozone governments have delivered, more or less adopting the British plan. And I should have given props to the British government, which vastly exceeded expectations last week — and has effectively shown the world the way forward.

And secondly because the bailout of the Scottish banks HBOS (£17 billion) and Royal Bank of Scotland (£20 billion) makes it look like Scotland is too small to go it alone and needs to remain part of the UK.

This entry was posted in Britain, economics, politics, Scotland and tagged , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

6 Responses to Labour will win the Glenrothes by-election

  1. Tom Robinson says:

    At the SNP conference (16-19 October 2008) Alex Salmond will demolish the nonsense that an independent Scotland could not have bailed out its banks-Have Ireland or Norway (both smaller but independent) failed to save their banks?-didn’t think so.

  2. cabalamat says:

    But surely Iceland was part of Salmond’s “arc of prosperity”?

    I would probabyl support Scottish independence if the people calling for it had any coherent idea how to make Scotland richer. But they haven’t. The SNP seem to think independence is some sort of magic pixie dust that they can spread on everything and make it better.

  3. Tom Robinson says:

    I am afraid you are just reflecting your own bias-I don’t remember pixie dust being mentioned in the SNP election manifesto-though I distinctly remember Goedon Brown repeatedly telling us he had eliminated the boom and bust economic cycle.

    Pit he forgo to mention he had replaced it with the Downing Street Disaster.

    More to the point of your comment-Labour won’t hold Glenrothes.

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